Watch:
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) produced a two years study on the urbanization of China, examining the global economic and social implications of the unprecedented expansion of China’s cities and how national and local policy makers can shape China’s urban development to 2025 and beyond. Preparing for China’s Urban Billion describes the findings of this research and is available to download for free at www.mckinsley.com/mgi
Interactive graphics highlight four-alternative scenarios for urbanization in China in the period 2005-2025 and the potential impact on the population, economy, floor space, public transport, energy, water, jobs, and skills. The four scenarios are:
Trendline
If current trends continue, nearly one billion people will live in China’s cities by 2025. The urban population will grow by some 350 million people-more than the population of the United States today. Some 240 million of China’s city dwellers will be migrants. China will have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants-compared with 35 in Europe today-of which 23 cities will have more than five million people. There will be eight megacities with populations of more than ten million.
Supercities
If current trends continue, nearly one billion people will live in China’s cities by 2025. The urban population will grow by some 350 million people-more than the population of the United States today. Some 240 million of China’s city dwellers will be migrants. China will have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants-compared with 35 in Europe today-of which 23 cities will have more than five million people. There will be eight megacities with populations of more than ten million.
Hub and spoke
This model-concentrated but to a lesser extent than supercities-comprises city clusters with one or two cities playing the central “hub” role with several neighboring city “spokes” with close economic ties to the hub. China already has some major clusters-including the cities of the Yangtze River Delta centered on Shanghai and the Pearl River Delta around Hong Kong and Guangzhou. In this scenario, 11 clusters would form with a combined population of more than 650 million people or 70 percent of the urban population
Distributed growth
China today is closest to a distributed growth pattern with many midsized cities growing, most with no strong pull over other cities. For international comparison, the United States and Germany have some similarities. Under this scenario China would still have two megacities-Shanghai and Beijing-and prominent hub and spoke systems. However these would not be growing as they would under concentrated growth scenarios. There would be be a slight shift toward midsized cities in currently underdeveloped regions.
Townization
This scenario is the most dispersed among MGI’s four urbanization scenarios. It would see 300 new small cities emerge over the next 20 years with populations of 500,000 to 1.5 million. Add these to China’s existing cities and you would see more than 1,100 cities across the nation as a whole.
Source: MGI